Development of 2 registry-based risk models suitable for characterizing hospital performance on 30-day all-cause mortality rates among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

Curtis JP, Geary LL, Wang Y, Chen J, Drye EE, Grosso LM, Spertus JA, Rumsfeld JS, Weintraub WS, Masoudi FA, Brindis RG, Krumholz HM. Development of 2 registry-based risk models suitable for characterizing hospital performance on 30-day all-cause mortality rates among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes. 2012 Sep 4; 5(5):628-37.

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Abstract:

BACKGROUND: Variation in outcomes after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) may reflect differences in quality of care. To date, however, we lack a methodology to monitor and improve national hospital 30-day mortality rates among patients undergoing PCI. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed hierarchical logistic regression models to calculate hospital risk-standardized 30-day all-cause PCI mortality rates. Due to differences in risk, patients were divided into 2 cohorts: those with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or cardiogenic shock, and those with no ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and no cardiogenic shock. The models were derived using 2006 data from the CathPCI Registry linked with administrative claims data, and validated using comparable 2005 data. In the derivation cohort of the ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or shock model (n = 15 123), the unadjusted 30-day mortality rate was 9.2%. The final model included 13 variables with the observed mortality rates ranging from 1.4% to 40.3% across deciles of the predicted patient mortality rates. The 25th and 75th percentiles of the risk-standardized mortality rate were 8.5% and 9.7%, with 5th and 95th percentiles of 7.6% and 11.0%. In the derivation cohort of the no ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and no shock model (n = 110 529), the unadjusted 30-day mortality rate was 1.4%. The final model included 16 variables with the observed predicted mortality rates ranging from 0.1% to 7.0% across deciles of the predicted patient mortality rates. The 25th and 75th percentiles of the risk-standardized mortality rate across 612 hospitals were 1.3% and 1.6%, with 5th and 95th percentiles of 1.0% and 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS: These National Quality Forum endorsed registry-based models produce estimates of hospital risk-standardized mortality rates for patients undergoing PCI.