skip to page content
Talk to the Veterans Crisis Line now
U.S. flag
An official website of the United States government

Health Services Research & Development

Go to the ORD website
Go to the QUERI website

HSR&D Citation Abstract

Search | Search by Center | Search by Source | Keywords in Title

Estimation of global insulin use for type 2 diabetes, 2018-30: a microsimulation analysis.

Basu S, Yudkin JS, Kehlenbrink S, Davies JI, Wild SH, Lipska KJ, Sussman JB, Beran D. Estimation of global insulin use for type 2 diabetes, 2018-30: a microsimulation analysis. The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology. 2019 Jan 1; 7(1):25-33.

Dimensions for VA is a web-based tool available to VA staff that enables detailed searches of published research and research projects.

If you have VA-Intranet access, click here for more information

VA staff not currently on the VA network can access Dimensions by registering for an account using their VA email address.
   Search Dimensions for VA for this citation
* Don't have VA-internal network access or a VA email address? Try searching the free-to-the-public version of Dimensions


BACKGROUND: The amount of insulin needed to effectively treat type 2 diabetes worldwide is unknown. It also remains unclear how alternative treatment algorithms would affect insulin use and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by insulin use, given that current access to insulin (availability and affordability) in many areas is low. The aim of this study was to compare alternative projections for and consequences of insulin use worldwide under varying treatment algorithms and degrees of insulin access. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation of type 2 diabetes burden from 2018 to 2030 across 221 countries using data from the International Diabetes Federation for prevalence projections and from 14 cohort studies representing more than 60% of the global type 2 diabetes population for HbA, treatment, and bodyweight data. We estimated the number of people with type 2 diabetes expected to use insulin, international units (IU) required, and DALYs averted per year under alternative treatment algorithms targeting HbA from 6·5% to 8%, lower microvascular risk, or higher HbA for those aged 75 years and older. FINDINGS: The number of people with type 2 diabetes worldwide was estimated to increase from 405·6 million (95% CI 315·3 million-533·7 million) in 2018 to 510·8 million (395·9 million-674·3 million) in 2030. On this basis, insulin use is estimated to increase from 516·1 million 1000 IU vials (95% CI 409·0 million-658·6 million) per year in 2018 to 633·7 million (500·5 million-806·7 million) per year in 2030. Without improved insulin access, 7·4% (95% CI 5·8-9·4) of people with type 2 diabetes in 2030 would use insulin, increasing to 15·5% (12·0-20·3) if insulin were widely accessible and prescribed to achieve an HbA of 7% (53 mmol/mol) or lower. If HbA of 7% or lower was universally achieved, insulin would avert 331?101 DALYs per year by 2030 (95% CI 256 601-437 053). DALYs averted would increase by 14·9% with access to newer oral antihyperglycaemic drugs. DALYs averted would increase by 44·2% if an HbA of 8% (64 mmol/mol) were used as a target among people aged 75 years and older because of reduced hypoglycaemia. INTERPRETATION: The insulin required to treat type 2 diabetes is expected to increase by more than 20% from 2018 to 2030. More DALYs might be averted if HbA targets are higher for older adults. FUNDING: The Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust.

Questions about the HSR&D website? Email the Web Team

Any health information on this website is strictly for informational purposes and is not intended as medical advice. It should not be used to diagnose or treat any condition.