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Validation of the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer Model: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Real-World Data.

Boursi B, Patalon T, Webb M, Margalit O, Beller T, Yang YX, Chodick G. Validation of the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer Model: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Real-World Data. Pancreas. 2022 Feb 1; 51(2):196-199.

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OBJECTIVES: The Enriching New-onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (END-PAC) model identified patients at high-risk for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) more than 6 months before diagnosis. The current study aimed to validate the END-PAC model using a large, state-mandated health care provider database. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients older than 50 years that had a diagnosis of new-onset diabetes (NOD) between 2006 and 2015. A risk score was assigned according to the END-PAC model. Patients who developed PDAC over the 3-year period after NOD diagnosis were identified using the Israeli National Cancer Registry. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent (1245/5408) of NOD patients were classified as high-risk, of them 32 (2.6%) developed PDAC. Median follow-up time from NOD detection to PDAC diagnosis was 609 days (interquartile range, 367-997). The hazard ratio for PDAC diagnosis among individuals at the high-risk group compared with the low-risk group was 5.70 (95% confidence interval, 2.93-11.06). Using the high-risk group as the screening threshold, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the model were 54.2%, 76.98%, 2.57%, and 99.4%, respectively. Area under the curve of the model was 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the robustness, generalizability and clinical applicability of the END-PAC model.

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